The strategy of major manufacturers to reduce production and protect prices is effective, and the Q4 contract price of DRAM/NAND memory chips is better than expected

News from this website on November 29th. Although the sales of most terminal products during Double Eleven were flat, under the premise that the three major original manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) significantly reduced production and controlled output, the spot price of memory chips increased. The price trend continued, among which NAND saw a more obvious increase due to serious losses.

According to the Taiwanese media "Business Times", the strategy of reducing production and maintaining prices by major memory chip manufacturers has been very effective. The Q4 contract price quotations were better than market expectations, with DDR5 rising by 15-20%, DDR4 rising by 10-15%, and DDR3 rising by 15-20%. rose by 10%, compared with the original estimate of only 5 to 10%. At the same time, the average increase of each NAND company is at least 20-25%, and the increase is significantly higher.

In addition, Samsung has given normal quotations for DRAM, but has suspended quotations for NAND and has not shipped any goods. The latest quotation is still under observation

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According to the query results of this site, InSpectrum’s latest quotation shows that the spot prices of 4Gb and 8Gb DDR4 memory have remained basically unchanged in the past week, but in the past week The monthly price has increased by 3.03% and 1.97%

In terms of NAND Flash spot, the weekly quotation of 256Gb is basically the same, but the price of 256Gb TLC Flash and 512Gb TLC Flash has increased by 4.12%, and the monthly quotation has increased by 15.25% and 27.78% respectively.

According to the forecast of TrendForce analysts, DRAM quotations are expected to increase by 3 to 8% in the fourth quarter, while the decline in the third quarter is 0 to 5%; NAND quotations are expected to increase by 8% in the fourth quarter. ~13%, much higher than the decline of 5~10% in the third quarter.

Storage module manufacturers revealed that the original factory is currently focusing on "delay tactics" for the supply of Flash (flash memory) in the fourth quarter. Originally (module factory) ) tried to finalize an order for millions of units in September, but the original factory was reluctant to release the goods. Even if it was willing to deliver the goods, the quantity and price could not reach satisfactory targets. Although the end market demand has entered the off-season, the Flash spot market is in a special state of hot upstream and cold downstream, accelerating the overall price increase of Flash wafer products. Despite the inventory backlog in the short-term channel market, NAND Flash wafer growth has continued unabated. The mainstream 512 Gb spot price has increased by about 20% in a single month, standing at US$2.6.

According to reports, Samsung cut DRAM production by as much as 30% in the fourth quarter, SK Hynix and Micron cut production by about 20%, and original manufacturers cut NAND production by even higher. It is expected that the three major suppliers will continue to reduce production until mid-2024, and capital expenditures and output will focus on more profitable aspects such as HBM and DDR5

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