Bloomberg Intelligence Forecasts 90% Chance for Solana Spot ETF Approval by 2025

Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have released updated odds for 2025 U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETF approvals

The U.S. could see several new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in cryptocurrencies launched by 2025, according to Bloomberg Law.

The first installment of Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart’s updated 2025 U.S. spot crypto ETF league table assigns a 90% chance to solana (SOL), an emerging blockchain network, to get the green light from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The analysts assign a 90% chance to both litecoin (LTC) and digital asset index baskets. XRP follows closely with an 85% probability.

Dogecoin (DOGE), polkadot (DOT), cardano (ADA), hedera (HBAR), and avalanche (AVAX) round out the forecast with odds ranging from 75% to 80%.

The data, published in a chart by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, shows that all 19b-4 filings for the listed assets have been acknowledged by the SEC, with decision deadlines spanning from July to December 2025.

On Tuesday, the SEC delayed the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF and the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF decisions.

The SEC is expected to classify these assets as commodities and most have regulated futures—a factor seen as favorable for approval.

Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket is highlighting a similar trend of increasing confidence among bettors. As of April 30, the SOL ETF wager shows an 89% likelihood of approval by year-end, up 15%, with a total volume of $142,806 traded. This aligns closely with Bloomberg’s forecast.

Litecoin and XRP also saw increased optimism on Polymarket, both now trading at a 79% chance. The XRP Polymarket contract—tracking Ripple ETF approval—has seen $65,640 in volume, while the Litecoin market has processed $42,181. These levels suggest moderate but growing engagement from speculators.

Cardano lags the others, with its Polymarket odds at 69%, albeit up 59% in recent days. The volume on this bet is the highest among the listed assets, totaling $366,581, indicating heightened trader interest despite Bloomberg’s more conservative 75% estimate.

As SEC deadlines near, investors and analysts are watching closely to see whether these assets will follow in the footsteps of bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), whose spot ETF markets are already established.

News data source: kdj.com

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