Bitcoin (BTC) Price Update: Hash Ribbon Indicator Flashes Green as BTC Struggles to Break Above $90,000 Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,373, showing mixed signals as a historically reliable buy indicator flashes green while the cryptocurrency struggles to break through the $90,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin faces several challenges that have kept its price below $90,000 despite a historically reliable buy indicator flashing green.

This week, the Hash Ribbon indicator has just issued a bullish signal for Bitcoin.

This on-chain metric was designed by analyst Charles Edwards to identify periods when mining difficulty and hash power have gone through capitulation and begun to recover. A “buy” signal is triggered when the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate. This suggests that any period of miner-driven market stress may be ending.

The signal has only appeared 20 times in Bitcoin’s history. In 17 of those 20 instances, the most recent local price low was not broken on a closing basis, giving the indicator an 85% success rate.

Bitcoin Archive noted: “This is one of the most reliable ‘buy’ indicators. Price gains have followed seven out of the last seven times this indicator was triggered.”

Hash Ribbon Flashes Buy Signal

This is one of the most reliable "buy" indicators.

Significant price gains have followed 7 out of the last 7 times this indicator was triggered.

Created by @caprioleio

This is interesting because usually, we see more sell-side derivatives volumes during periods of strong price decline

Despite this bullish indicator, Bitcoin faces several challenges that have kept its price below $90,000. The cryptocurrency has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows in recent days after reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24.

One major factor restraining Bitcoin’s price is the constant selling pressure from short-term holders. These are investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days.

According to Glassnode’s analysis, the current Bitcoin market is “top-heavy.” This means that many investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a large portion of Bitcoin’s supply.

The volume of short-term holder supply held at a loss has surged to 3.4 million BTC. This is the largest volume of short-term holder supply in loss since July 2018.

This selling pressure is reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score. The score has remained below 0.1 since Bitcoin’s price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range.

A score lower than 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation. A value lower than 0.1 highlights more intense selling pressure in the market.

Another factor limiting Bitcoin’s price movement is the decrease in market liquidity. On-chain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a 47% decline from peak levels during the rally to all-time highs.

The active address count has also decreased by 18%. It has fallen from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000 currently.

The Bitcoin futures market shows similar cooling trends. Open interest has dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with funding rates also declining.

This combination of deleveraging and liquidity contraction limits the market’s ability to push past $90,000. There are simply not enough buy orders to absorb the sell orders at these price levels.

Lack of Demand

The market also faces a lack of new demand. Glassnode data shows that the current bull cycle isn’t seeing many new buyers enter the market. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows supply concentration at higher price levels ($100,000-$108,000) but no large influx of buyers at lower levels.

Adding to the market complexity is the upcoming expiry of $16.5 billion in Bitcoin options on March 28. This represents a record-breaking monthly options expiry that could affect the price in either direction.

Currently, call (buy) options stand at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options are at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these call options are set at $92,000 or higher, requiring a 6.4% price increase to become viable.

For bears to minimize their losses, they need to push Bitcoin below $84,000 before the March 28 expiry. This would increase the value of put options and strengthen their position.

Bulls, on the other hand, can maximize their gains by driving the price above $90,000. This could create momentum for a bullish trend in April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resume at a strong pace.

Despite current challenges, long-term holders still retain about 4

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