Quinten François Discusses Bitcoin (BTC) Expectations in the Current Market Cycle

Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, recently discussed the expectations for Bitcoin in the current market cycle.

WeRate co-founder Quinten François recently shared his expectations for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in the current market cycle.

Here are some key takeaways from his recent appearance on Mr. M Podcast.

Lower Return Expectations: According to François, a unique aspect of this cycle is the lower expectations for returns. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin surged from around $3,000 during the bear market to over $60,000. However, François believes that many are anticipating smaller gains this time around.

20x Target: François mentioned that he wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin experiences a 20x increase from the current bear market lows. Personally, he is looking at a target of $250,000, with段階的な profit-taking targets of $85,000, $120,000, $190,000 and finally $250,000.

Data-Driven Estimates: François emphasizes that his estimates are based on data and past cycles. However, he acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of the future.

Spoiled by Past Cycles: François points out that many investors, including himself, have been "spoiled" by past cycles. With high expectations, there's a concern that even a 10x return in this cycle could feel underwhelming.

Importance of Multiple Metrics: François uses a combination of metrics to guide his decisions. He focuses on three main pillars: a price target for Bitcoin, the performance of key altcoins (such as ETH and LINK) and a time-based target for selling. This diversified strategy allows him to act when any of these indicators suggest it's time to sell, providing a safety net against market volatility.

François's Past Observations: Reflecting on the last cycle, François believes that Bitcoin's price didn't reach expected highs due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. He argues that the absence of certain market phases, like a retail mania, contributed to an early price peak.

ETFs and Physical Backing: One of the most important developments in the Bitcoin market has been the introduction of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). François believes that if these ETFs are physically backed by Bitcoin, they can positively impact the market.

Institutions and Self-Custody Challenges: François highlights that many institutions are hesitant to directly enter the Bitcoin market due to the challenges of self-custody. ETFs provide a solution by allowing them to invest in Bitcoin through familiar, regulated platforms. This accessibility could pave the way for broader adoption.

ETFs for Newcomers: François adds that many newcomers to the crypto space face steep learning curves, especially regarding self-custody. ETFs offer a stepping stone for these individuals, allowing them to start investing in Bitcoin without feeling overwhelmed.

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