SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240715): When the Guns Fire

At 18:00 on July 13, local time in the United States, Trump held a new round of presidential campaign speeches in Butler, Pennsylvania. At 18:11, a gunman came from outside the venue. Several shots were fired at him from a high place, injuring Trump's right ear. At the same time, it also aroused the voice of the American people to support Trump, causing his election winning rate to soar to more than 70%. Considering his use and support of digital currencies (at least during this campaign), the assassination also indirectly supported the continued rise in BTC prices and the rapid upward climb in overall volatility levels from the weekend bottom.

Source: TradingView; SignalPlus

But having said that, he is not entirely responsible for Bitcoin’s recovery. Judging from data provided by Farside Investors, traditional funds have been re-injected into the digital currency market through Spot ETFs in recent days. On the one hand, the upcoming interest rate cut in September has provided support from the macro environment. On the other hand, according to Arkham’s news, the German government currently has no currency to sell. BTC has maintained its bottom line of 50,000 under the recent strong selling pressure. It also gave investors more confidence in the resilience of its price and provided a preview of the upcoming Mentougou repayment incident. Judging from options trading, in the past 24 hours, investors have expressed positive sentiments by selling a large number of short-term bearish strategies (Short Put Spread, Short Put). The more representative examples include BTC Short 26JUL 62000 vs 58000 Put Spread (200BTC) per leg) and ETH Short 26JUL24 3300-P (3500ETH). But we also noticed that the number of BTC put strategies was also considerable in August. Traders seized the opportunity of this price increase and bought relatively cheap put options to provide continued protection for profitable bulls. Source: Farside Investors; Twitter

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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