Restore the truth behind the market crash: The German government continues to sell, and Mentougou adds fuel to the panic atmosphere

After hovering above the 60,000 integer mark for several days, Bitcoin’s market finally chose to “accelerate” downward today. After midday, it fell below the 58,000 and 57,000 integer marks successively, reaching an intraday low of $56,952, a record high in nearly two months. New low. Ethereum simultaneously fell from US$3,300 to US$3,126. Driven by the two, the crypto market ushered in a general decline. There were less than ten non-stable currency assets with positive gains in the Binance USDT market in the past 24 hours. ARB even hit its all-time high during the day. Low price $0.71.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 12 hours, a total of US$207 million was liquidated, of which US$187 million was liquidated for long orders.

What exactly caused this deep correction in the "bull market" supported by a series of positive factors such as "halving + ETF + election"? Is the bull market really over?

The German government sold about 10,000 BTC in half a month

At the beginning of this year, the German police seized 50,000 Bitcoins, worth 2.17 billion US dollars at the time. The case was related to the operation of a piracy website that violated copyright law in 2013. The company The proceeds are then converted into Bitcoins. The statement said that one of the two suspects voluntarily transferred the bitcoins to the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), and although formal charges have not yet been filed against the individuals, the investigation into the subsequent commercial money laundering is still ongoing. At the time, the police statement added that no final decision had been made regarding the use of Bitcoin.

The transfer and selling of these Bitcoins finally started in June this year, with a total of about 9,600 Bitcoins sold, and the current position holds 40,359 BTC.

On June 19, 6,500 Bitcoins were sold that day;

On June 25, at 5:20 pm, 400 Bitcoins were transferred to the exchange and 500 were transferred to other addresses;

On June 26, pm At 3:50, 750 coins were transferred out;

On July 1, at 4:26 pm, 400 coins were transferred to the exchange; and then 282.74 coins were transferred out again to multiple exchanges;

On July 2, in the afternoon At 7:20, 361.877 BTC were transferred to Flow Traders;

In today’s transfer, the German government transferred 1,300 BTC to the exchange at 4:25 pm, and at 4:35 pm, the transfer 1700 BTC to anonymous wallet address.

BTC finally fell below US$57,000 at around 5:15 pm today, reaching as low as US$56,952.

Mentougou's huge compensation has started testing small-amount transfers

The Mentougou compensation issue has affected the market. The selling pressure of as many as 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH once caused market panic on June 24, and the price of BTC fell. It reached around $60,000. However, since transfers had not actually started to be distributed at that time, the $60,000 mark was held. According to official website documents disclosed earlier, the Mt. Gox trustee stated that it will start the repayment of BTC and BCH from early July.

It’s July 4th. According to the latest display on the Arkham platform, Mentougou has conducted test transfers at 12 o’clock today. The market has already started to fall sharply at about 9 o'clock today. Although the selling force is not from Mentougou, it also casts a shadow on the subsequent market confidence. After all, large selling pressure is ahead, and no one wants to stand under a dangerous wall.

BTC spot ETF has had its first net outflow after net inflows in the past 5 days

Bitcoin spot ETF is an important data for buying and selling orders and can be used to observe the buying and selling strength of the market. However, upon observation, the data is not optimistic. According to SoSoValue, the total net outflow on July 3 reached $20.4495 million, which was the first net outflow after net inflows in the past five days.

When we stretch out the timeline, the chart above clearly shows that when net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs are high, Bitcoin prices tend to rise. When the net outflow became larger that day, the price of Bitcoin fell significantly. In May, its continuous net inflow of funds provided support for the rise in Bitcoin prices, but in June, its total net outflow accelerated significantly, and funds were flowing out significantly.

How is the market outlook?

QCP Capital said in its latest market analysis that BTC fell below the $60,000 support level amid heavy selling pressure, and BTC miners showed signs of capitulation, which historically usually means a price bottom. The last comparable hash rate drop occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at $17,000. Additionally, despite the severe sell-off in the crypto market, the options market remains optimistic, with a particularly heavy bias towards ETH call options expiring in September and December.

QCP Capital believes that given the recent selling pressure from Bitcoin, as well as the push from factors such as Mt. Gox, miners and government regulations, ETH is likely to see a stronger rebound due to the upcoming submission of Ethereum spot S-1 filings .

Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner of Mechanism Capital, is even more pessimistic.

He stated that most market participants do not realize the severity of the possible decline in Bitcoin’s 4-month range. The closest analogue we can find is the May 2021 range, when Bitcoin and altcoins also experienced a parabolic rise. The $50B+ crypto leverage here is similarly near all-time highs (excluding CME), but in this case we have a longer range (18 weeks vs 13 weeks) and there has not been an extreme washout yet, while We experienced this a few times during the 2020-2021 bull market.

He also said that the initial estimate of a low of $50,000 may be too conservative and that we may see a more extreme pullback into the $40,000 range. Such a pullback can cause considerable damage to the market, and may require several months of choppy/downtrend (recovery period) before a reversal to the upward trend occurs.

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