Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally Amid Japan Banking Crisis

Similar to the scenario with U.S. banks in March of 2023, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes contended on June 21 that Japanese banks would soon need a huge bailout

Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes believes that a banking crisis in Japan will propel Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to new highs. Hayes predicts that Japanese banks will require a large government bailout due to massive unrealized losses on U.S. government bonds.

According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve will be forced to purchase these bonds from Japanese banks, leading to an increase in the money supply and ultimately benefiting crypto markets. Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin could rally towards the $100,000 mark as a result of this scenario.

Hayes' prediction is based on the narrative that banking crises and central bank bailouts have historically been bullish for crypto markets. He observed that the price of Bitcoin rose more than 200% following the banking crisis and central bank bailout in March of 2023.

Hayes also noted that the fifth-largest bank in Japan, Norinchukin, announced plans to sell $63 billion in U.S. and European bonds by March 2025 due to paper losses on those bonds. However, Hayes believes that this is only a small part of a larger problem.

According to an IMF survey, Japanese banks held $850 billion in foreign bonds at the beginning of 2022, including nearly $450 billion in U.S. bonds. Hayes suggests that a potential bond sale of this magnitude would be unacceptable to the U.S. Treasury.

He anticipates that the Treasury will demand that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) purchase these bonds from the Japanese banks it supervises. To facilitate this, Hayes proposes that the BOJ utilize its Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility.

This facility allows the BOJ to use U.S. Treasuries as collateral in exchange for newly printed U.S. dollars. According to Hayes, this scenario will result in more money printing, benefiting those holding assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes thus said he’ll be rotating out of Ethena stablecoins and into “crypto risk,” and has urged crypto investors to “buy the fucking dip.”Hayes' full scenario is outlined below:

“This is just another pillar of the crypto bull market. The supply of dollars must increase to maintain the current Pax Americana dollar-based filthy financial system.

Crypto will continue to get bid as the dollar gets printed. I’ll be rotating out of Ethena stablecoins and into crypto risk. Buy the fucking dip.”

News source：https://www.kdj.com/cryptocurrencies-news/articles/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-rally-japan-banking-crisis.html

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